TS Noel Public Advisorys

[Admin]

TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...NOEL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IN THE
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 215
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

[Admin]

TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
200 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL PASSING OVER NASSAU AS IT ACCELERATES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR NEAR
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

[Admin]

HURRICANE NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS HURRICANE NOEL AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE WATCH AND WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE
NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NOEL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...29 KM/HR...AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOEL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOEL SHOULD
THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...AND
THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

[Admin]

HURRICANE NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...HURRICANE NOEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
285 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES...1225 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD
THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT
CANADA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...27.3 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

[brunota2003]

Mmm...Noel brought some decent winds here as an Extratropical low, and it was over 200 miles away!

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